ANALYSIS: Why visiting an isolated Iran can endanger our lives

A woman carries picture of Irans Leader Ali Khamenei as she watches Hassan Nasrallah appear on a screen a live broadcast to speak at an event marking Resistance and Liberation Day, May 25, 2017

Mahyar Harsini

Al Arabiya, 29 July 2017 - In November 1979, a few months after Iran's Mullahs assumed power, the world got a bitter taste of what was about to come when Iran's Supreme Leader Khomeini ordered suppressive forces under the guise of students to storm the US Embassy in Tehran to take 52 hostages.

It was only after months of negotiations and generous concessions that the hostages were returned to the US in January 1981. Unfortunately, this set a catastrophic example for the following decades, letting Iran's rulers know that taking hostages is a beneficial business.

Ever since, Iran's rulers have been continuing to implement these old mafia tactics. They are part of Iran's terrorist arsenal which also includes bombings, the support of numerous global terror organizations like Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda and ISIS, the export of its 'revolution“ into other countries through the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), mass executions and assassinations of opponents. Hostage taking operations mainly target foreign and dual nationals inside and outside Iran.

Though some hostages were killed in the past, mostly the captures lead to negotiations with the involved countries and usually end in the hostages' release in exchange for political and financial concessions. While financial concessions mainly consist in the transfer of money, trade deals and sanctions relief, political concessions include prisoner swaps with imprisoned Iranian agents and terrorists and measures against Iranian opposition groups such as the PMOI.

In 1986, among other concessions to the regime, the majority of the PMOI leadership were forced to leave France to secure the release of French hostages in Lebanon that were captured by Iran's proxy 'Hezbollah'. Similarly, American hostages were captured and only released after Tehran's demands were met. The malice of Iran's procedures was exposed when Sheikh Muhammad-Hussein Fadhlullah, a 'Hezbollah' leader, acknowledged in March 1991: „If it were left to us, we would release them this very day. But [Iranian President] Rafsanjani believed that the Americans are not yet ready to step forward and accept Tehran's demands“. Unfortunately criminals like the deceased Rafsanjani against whom an arrest warrant was issued in Argentina for his involvement in a Jewish cultural center bombing in 1994, are often times wrongfully portrayed as reformers in mass media to keep the appeasement policy with Tehran alive.

Last year, former US President Barack Obama shipped a $400 million ransom to Iran to free American hostages that had been arrested after visiting Iran. Though the administration claimed that this money was part of a $1.7 billion settlement dispute going back to the time of the Shah, it became pretty obvious that this claim was nothing more than an excuse.

As Saeed Abedini, one of the hostages, told Fox News, the Iranians were waiting for the money to arrive, to free the hostages. This procedure was not surprising as it was part of the appeasement policy of the Obama administration to empower Iran's expansionist regime which led to further destabilization of the Middle East. Similarly, the Qatari rulers, among other measures, contributed to destabilize the region when they reportedly facilitated the transfer of $1 billion to Iran- and al-Qaeda–linked groups in 2016 to release members of their royal family who were kidnapped in Iraq. Bloomberg's Eli Lake rightfully pointed out in an article in August 2016 that the Obama administration in 2009, when the people in Iran were rising up to root out the regime, for geopolitical reasons did not support them, as it wanted a nuclear deal, not a regime change. We were therefore not surprised to see that Iranian officials increased their military budget by exactly the same $1.7 billion, the US had sent them to release the hostages at the expense of the US taxpayers.

We can assume that at least part of this money has been spent for terror operations.

The anti-religious measures of randomly taking hostages are especially disturbing since they contradict the very teachings of the Quran which wants us to even take in and safeguard our counterparts from hunger and fear. Making things even worse, Iran's partners in Turkey and North Korea seem to have learned from Iran's convenient strategy, with Turkey recently having arrested foreign reporters.

Vicious cycle

The rulers in Iran know that with each act of hostage taking, mass media puts pressure on Western politicians to bring the hostages back home, making them look weak. Nevertheless, a few politicians are willing to withstand that pressure. Most prefer to reward the criminals to get public recognition, while knowing that the vicious cycle is about to repeated itself soon after.

We therefore have to be prepared to not find ourselves being entangled in Iran's spiderweb. With Iran being more and more isolated, it is quite likely that terror attacks and hostage taking operations will even increase soon. Our citizens need to be informed to no longer visit Iran and areas controlled by pro-Iranian forces, regardless of economical and geopolitical considerations. This is the only way to ensure their security without having to enable terrorism. While most of us know that visiting ISIS territory can endanger our lives, few of us have the same view regarding Iranian controlled territory. Besides, spending money in Iran generally has to be avoided for security reasons as at least 40 percent of the economy is in the hands of the IRGC, the very source of terrorism in the world.

Ultimately the only language terrorists understand, is the language of force. Instead of playing into the criminals' hands and letting them dictate the terms, our leaders have to set a red line by putting political and economic pressure on them. While Obama used to react to the terrorists' demands and endangered the world by giving money to them, President Donald Trump has found the right words this week when he urged Iran's rulers to release the imprisoned US hostages, warning them to impose new and serious consequences if they refuse to do so. In this regard, the difference between the Obama administration and the Trump administration seems to be like the alteration of night and day. It is in our interest that other world leaders follow Trump's example and tackle the elephant in the room that has been ignored for too long. We, the peace loving people of the world, will benefit greatly from it.

Western nations decry Iran space launch; US levies sanctions

Iran regime space launch

WASHINGTON, Washington Post, July 28, 2017 — The United States punished Iran on Friday for launching a satellite-carrying rocket into space by hitting six Iranian entities with sanctions targeting the country’s ballistic missiles program.

Three European nations that helped broker the landmark Iran nuclear deal in 2015 joined the U.S. in condemning the launch, and said it was too close for comfort to the type of intercontinental ballistic missiles used to deliver a nuclear payload. At the United Nations , U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said Iran was “breaking its obligation” and added, “We can’t trust them.”

“Under this administration, the United States will not let Iran off the hook for behavior that threatens our interests and our allies,” Haley said. “We will continue to impose consequences until Iran stops its provocations and complies fully with Security Council resolutions.”

The U.S. sanctions hit six Iranian subsidiaries of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, described by the Treasury Department as “central” to Iran’s ballistic missiles program. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin cast the sanctions as part of an ongoing U.S. effort to aggressively oppose Iran’s ballistic missile activity, including what he called a “provocative space launch” carried out by the Islamic Republic on Thursday.

In another allegation against the U.S. adversary, Mnuchin said that missile attacks on U.S. partner Saudi Arabia over the weekend by Houthi rebels in Yemen had likely come with the support of Iran. The U.S. has long accused Tehran of shipping weapons to the Houthis, a Shiite group that controls part of Yemen and is being fought by a Saudi-led coalition.
The sanctions came a day after Iran successfully launched its most advanced satellite-carrying rocket into space, in what was likely a major advancement for the country’s space program. The “Simorgh” rocket is capable of carrying a satellite weighing 550 pounds (250 kilograms), Iran state television said.

The U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center said in a report released last month that the Simorgh could act as a test bed for developing the technologies needed to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM.

In a joint statement, the U.S., Britain, Germany and France called the launch “inconsistent” with the U.N. Security Council resolution enshrining the nuclear deal, adding that such activities destabilize the region. The grouping represented all of the Western nations that are part of the nuclear deal, which also includes Russia, China and the European Union .

“We condemn this action,” the countries said. “We call on Iran not to conduct any further ballistic missile launches and related activities.”

Yet beyond the U.S. sanctions, it was unclear what, if anything, the group could do to increase pressure quickly on Tehran. Notably, the nations stopped short of saying the launch had “violated” the U.N. resolution, saying only that it was “inconsistent” with the text. That’s because the resolution calls upon, but doesn’t oblige, Iran to refrain from ballistic missile development.

Britain, Germany and France also said they were raising their concerns directly to the Islamic Republic. Despite brokering the nuclear deal, the U.S. doesn’t maintain regular diplomatic relations with Iran.
The U.S. penalties reflect an attempt by President Donald Trump’s administration to show it’s staying tough on Iran even though Trump has yet to scrap the 2015 nuclear agreement, despite threatening to do so as a candidate and labelling it a bad deal.

Is There Torture In Iran ? 5 Afghans Say Yes

Iran Death row Afghan nationals allege torture to confess in open letter

Pulling out prisoners' nails to get a coerced confession from them 

IRAN, 28 July 2017-- Five prisoners sentenced to death in Birjand Prison (Eastern Iran) in an open letter disclosed a series of brutal tortures in jail, including extraction of prisoners' nails.

    Centeral  Birjand Prison (Eastern Iran)

These five prisoners are Afghan citizens, who are married and have children. In their letter, they stipulate, 'We are five Afghan prisoners who worked in Tehran. We were going from Zabol (southwestern Iran) to Birjand with a Toyota when the driver started fighting with us. On the way, he stopped with an excuse of filling the tank with gas, but he came back with a bunch of police officers.'

One of the prisoners called Mohammed Mizan Zehi writes, 'As the police officer came, they hit me on the head and took us to the police station. We were severely tortured there. They extracted my right toes nails and charged us with carrying 140 kg of opium and having two Ak-47 guns.'

 The torturers, who brutally tortured this mentally impaired prisoner were guard officer

The letter reads, 'I swear to God that I only had a small amount of opium since I had severe pain in my left leg. Neither have we seen [large quantities of] opium nor guns, let alone carrying these materials.'

Mizan Zehi added, 'Due to brutal tortures we were forced to accept that the judicial authorities handle our cases. The advisers of the Second Branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Tribunal of Birjand unjustly sentenced us to death after five years.'

Shah Mohammed Zehi, Seraj Gavkhor, Ahmed Shah, Isa Zehi, and Eid Mohammed Zehi - Birjand Prison

Why is Changiz Ghadam Kheiri, a political prisoner on hunger strike?

Kurd political prisoner Changiz Qadam Kheiri who has been transferred to serve his time in Masjed Suleiman Prison

Iran, 28 July 2017-- Iranian political prisoner, changiz Ghadam Kheiri has been on hunger strike since Monday July 24 to protest pressures on him by the prison officials.

Despite certification by the prison physicians that he needs surgery due to his deteriorating health situation, Changiz who is currently in Masjed Soleiman Prison in the Khouzestan province (Southwestern Iran) has been deprived of receiving medical care imposed by the Ministry of Intelligence.

In protest to the Ministry of Intelligence's impedement in releasing him on medical grounds, and his inadequate situation in prison, he has gone on hunger strike since Monday July 24.

Changiz Ghadam Kheiri who was wounded at the time of his arrest, despite the passage of more than five years from the time of his arrest, still has shrapnel in his body and has been kept in poor sanitary conditions.

While he does not use any tobacco, he is kept in section 1, where addicts are kept.

According to reports, the request of the prisoner to transfer him to another section has been denied by the regime's Ministry of Intelligence.

Changiz Ghadam Kheiri, born in 1988, was arrested in 2011 and transferred to Sanandaj central prison. After two years, he was exiled to Masjed Soleiman prison.

This prisoners was sentenced to 40 years imprisonment for a six-month membership in one of the Kurdish parties by a regime’s court in Sanandaj.

It is worth mentioning that after the arrest of Changiz Ghadam Kheiri, his family was informed about the arrest and wounding of the prisoner only after a few months of having no news about him.

Stop Ignoring Iran and Hezbollah Terror, US Ambassador Nikki Haley Tells Security Council

US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley..

The Algemeiner, JULY 25, 2017 - US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley expressed frustration on Tuesday with the UN Security Council’s attitude toward Iran and its terrorist proxies in the Middle East.

“Truth be told, the Security Council often makes the Middle East more complicated than it actually is,” Haley said at the Security Council’s monthly meeting on the region. “It obsesses over Israel. And it refuses to acknowledge one of the chief sources of conflict and killing in the Middle East — that is, Iran and its partner militia, Lebanese Hezbollah.”

Haley began her remarks by affirming that the US “shares everyone’s concern about the heightened tensions in Jerusalem.”
 “All parties should work to reduce these tensions, and we offer whatever assistance we can in helping to do this,” she stated. But, she added, “I am going to refrain from further comment on this sensitive issue in the hope that wisdom will prevail over emotions.”

Turning the Security Council’s attention to Iran and Hezbollah, Haley asserted that “together with its Iranian patron, Hezbollah seeks to cause destruction throughout the Middle East.”

“Some see ‘two wings’ to Hezbollah — a terrorist wing, and a political and social wing,” she told the Security Council. “This is a convenient excuse for Hezbollah, but it is dangerous fiction.”

Haley excoriated the Security Council for its timidity in confronting Hezbollah’s multiple violations of its resolutions on Lebanon — including the core demand that Hezbollah disarm, as the Lebanese Army is regarded as the only legitimate military force in the country.

“For too long, the Security Council has chosen to pretend that the status quo is acceptable for the people of Lebanon,” she said. “It is not. Hezbollah’s illegal weapons build-up is putting the people of Lebanon in great danger.”
Haley continued: “Remarkably, this council cannot even bring itself to use the word ‘Hezbollah’ in recent resolutions or statements on Lebanon.

absurd. Worse than that, it’s dangerous.”
“We must begin to get serious about enforcing our own resolutions that have been routinely violated by Iran and Hezbollah,” Haley concluded.

Iran claims successful rocket test, move likely to anger U.S.

Iran Space Centre was officially opened with the successful test of the Simorgh (Phoenix) space launch vehicle

DUBAI, Reuters, Jul 27, 2017 - Iran has successfully tested a rocket that can deliver satellites into orbit, state television reported on Thursday, an event likely to raise tensions with the United States because of its potential use in a ballistic missile.

Washington has said Iran is defying a U.N. resolution calling on it not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Tehran denies it has missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads.

'The Imam Khomeini Space Centre was officially opened with the successful test of the Simorgh (Phoenix) space launch vehicle,' state television said. 'The Simorgh can place a satellite weighing up to 250 kg (550 pounds) in an orbit of 500 km (311 miles).'

State television showed footage of the firing of the rocket, mounted on a launch-pad carrying the pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic, and Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

'The Imam Khomeini Space Centre ... is a large complex that includes all stages of the preparation, launch, control and guidance of satellites,' state television added.

The United States this month slapped new economic sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile programme, and said Tehran's 'malign activities' in the Middle East had undercut any 'positive contributions' from a 2015 accord curbing its nuclear programme.

The measures signalled that President Donald Trump wanted to put more pressure on Iran while keeping in place the accord between Tehran and six world powers, which he has in the past condemned.

Iran says its space programme is peaceful, but Western experts suspect the programme may be a cover for developing military missile technologies.

On Monday, Scott Kripowicz of the directorate for international affairs at the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency told a conference: 'Space-launch activities which involve multi-stage systems that further the development of technologies for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) are becoming a more realistic threat'

'In this region, Iran has successfully orbited small satellites and announced plans to orbit a larger satellite using the Simorgh space-launch vehicle, which could be configured to be an ICBM,' Kripowicz said.

'Progress in Iran's space programme could shorten the pathway to an ICBM, as space-launch vehicles use similar technologies, with the exception of their payloads,' he added.

On Saturday, Iran announced the opening of a new facility to produce a missile that can target fighter planes, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles and helicopters.

In 2013, Iran said it had successfully launched a monkey into space and retrieved it alive, which officials hailed as a major step towards their goal of sending humans into space.

But in March, an official said the state-run space agency had cancelled a project to launch a human into space because of high costs.

A democratic alternative to the Iranian regime – 'Free Iran' rally highlights MEK's role in Iranian resistance

During the 'Free Iran' rally in Paris on July 1, the mood was festive and clearing upbeat, as speakers discussed the movement of MEK members from Iraq to Albania.

But many of the speakers and delegations also spoke of the real possibility of regime change in Iran, as they noted major changes on the international scene. Speaker after speaker from the United States pointed to the new policies of the Trump administration, while others acknowledged the Obama administration for its efforts to remove the MEK from the terrorist list.

In Focus

Still, the highlight of the event was the keynote address by Maryam Rajavi, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) President-elect. She noted that there was an alternative to the current regime and its extremism.

"Since last July, the Iranian Resistance has hoisted the banner of seeking justice for the victims of the massacre of political prisoners 29 years ago, turning it into the main focus of political discourse in Iran today," said Rajavi.

She noted that in the recent Iranian elections, which many speakers called a "sham", that the slogan of the resistance was "No to the executioner, no to the charlatan". It was a slogan that was widely embraced by the Iranian people, and referenced the attempt by Khamenei to elect Raisi, a member of the death commission in the 1988 massacre.

Rajavi said there is alternative to the Iranian regime and it is the Iranian resistance.

"It is relying on political prisoners, who reaffirmed their support recently for this gathering from the depth of their cells and dungeons. It is relying on women, workers, teachers, professionals, and selfless youths. It is relying on their unsparing love and generous support, those who barrow money and sell their houses and properties to help keep this Resistance independent, strong, and solidified," said Rajavi.

She noted that the Resistance has continued to fight for freedom and stood by what it has said and promised.

"The Iranian nation is proud to have created a democratic alternative through resistance and great suffering and sacrifice. This decisive asset,…did not exist at the time of the Shah," said Rajavi. She acknowledged that this left a vacuum that allowed the regime to grow and take root.

As part of her discussion of the Resistance, she acknowledged the contributions of Massoud Rajavi, who has been a leader in the Resistance, but also active in encouraging those in Camp Liberty to keep fighting and maintain the struggle for freedom.

The Right Solution For Iran Is Not War

Iranian military trucks carry surface-to-air missiles during a parade on the occasion of the country's Army Day, on April 18, 2017, in Tehran. / AFP PHOTO / ATTA KENARE (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

We are at a critical juncture in our time in history. The Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has entered now its third year.

As the Trump White House is pending its Iran policy there is increasing support for regime change. All the while the Iran appeasement camp are boosting their efforts of claiming any firm policy on Tehran will lead to war. The question is do the measures professed by this party truly prevent war?

When Iranian opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) recently held its annual convention in Paris, with Trump “emissaries” such as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaking powerfully of regime change in Iran. Former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton went as far as declaring the Iranian regime will not witness its 40th anniversary in February 2019.

In response, Iran and its lobbies in the West, terrified of such a surge behind the NCRI as the sole alternative able to bring about true change in Iran, have not remained silent. Iran apologists are yet again seen resorting to the old tactic of warning about a new war in the Middle East.

For decades now pro-Iranian regime writers have cautioned against adopting a firm policy on Tehran, allowing the mullahs’ regime to plunge the entire Middle East into havoc.

As we speak Iraq, Syria and Yemen are in ruins thanks to Iran’s support of proxy elements fueling sectarian conflicts and deadly civil wars.

The war in Afghanistan has yet to finalize after 16 years, and reports continue of Iran supporting the Taliban and al-Qaeda in this country.

Not necessary to put war back on the table; Iran is at war

IAEA conduct complicates Iran nuclear deal

By Hamid Bahrami

Al Arabiya, 25 July 2017 - Two years have passed since the signing of the ineffective nuclear agreement between world powers and Tehran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

For those who are familiar with the theocracy in Iran, it is a known fact that all foreign policy in Iran are decided by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. This is even true in the case of the highly promoted nuclear deal. It is worth noting that before and during the negotiations, Khamenei, said that Oman had a key role in breaking the ice between Iran and the US.

Thus, it is naive to think that the new president, Hassan Rouhani , was the one who changed the 10-year-long stalemate. Iran has an abundance of oil, gas and others natural resources, hence, using nuclear energy is both expensive and controversial.

Independent experts acknowledge that Iran’s goal of maintaining a nuclear program is to produce nuclear weapon. However, Iran has consistently refused these views and claims that its program is of a peaceful nature.

Regional hegemony

It is worth pointing out that having a nuclear warhead will guarantee Iran’s regional hegemony. Therefore, Iran has consistently tried to achieve it. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian president and one of the pillars of the Islamic Republic who died last year, said that Iran was trying to make nuclear bomb.

“When we first began, we were at war and we sought to have that possibility for the day that the enemy might use a nuclear weapon”, he said in an interview. Consequently, the regime in Tehran sought nuclear weapons in order to tilt the balance of power in the region in its favor.

The West imposed comprehensive sanctions against Iran targeting its finance sector and its selling of oil. These intelligent punitive measures exacerbated the Iranian economy that already suffered greatly from decades of economic mismanagement and widespread corruption, to the point of destruction, according to statistics from Iran’s own Central bank. The inflation was over 30 percent in 2013.

Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth

Hamid Bahrami

Economic poverty put immense pressure on the Iranian middle class, the Iranian government even tried to redefine the base basket of food (government subsidies to the Iranian middle class) to control the inflation. Rouhani's government even started to distribute especial food baskets. The regime’s National Security Council warned about hungry rebellion. Salaries of labors was unpaid and economic deadlock brought the government to its knees.

Although, Iran’s goal of making nuclear weapon was in reach and Tehran increased its intervention in the region, the economic crisis threatened the theocracy's very existence. Consequently, the Supreme Leader ordered his officials to start the negotiation with the West. This was president Obama giving artificial respiration to Tehran.

After the agreement

The sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear program. According to the JCPOA, Iran must redesign and rebuild its heavy-water reactor in Arak. It means that Iran’s abilities to develop and produce nuclear weapon is intensively limited for years. Some experts, diplomats and government officials argue that the sanctions achieved their goal.

But at that time, the JCPOA did not include the rest of Iran’s threatening and destabilizing activities such as its ballistic missile program, dispatch of tens of thousands of militias and paramilitary forces to Syria. The JCPOA did neither addressed the appalling human rights situation in Iran.

Iran and violation of agreement

A conditional approval was published by the Supreme Leader Khamenei with regard to Tehran agreeing to the JCPOA. The document contained several conditions.

One of the conditions was about new sanctions after signing of the agreement, it said that “Any sanctions against Iran at every level and on any pretext, including terrorism and human rights violations, by any one of the countries participating in the negotiations will constitute a violation of the JCPOA, and a reason for Iran to stop executing the agreement.”

Considering that US has imposed several sanctions on Iran after the deal, one must ask the following question, why has Iran not stopped executing the agreement?

The Iranian regime is besieged by extensive social discontent. Over 10 millions are unemployed and many ordinary Iranians are forced to live a life below poverty-line.

Not a foreign enemy

Indeed, Iranian authorities confess that the greatest threat to theocracy is not a foreign enemy, like the US, but popular protests and anti-regime demonstrations, especially by the disenfranchised poor people and youth, breaking the current status quo.

The reality is that the regime has always been at war with the young generation over individual liberties and social freedoms, which challenged the foundation of the regime’s theocracy. That is why Iran’s answer to new US sanctions has been merely rhetoric.

Due to the theocracy’s weak position in the society and its faltering economy, if Tehran abandons the nuclear agreement, all sanctions will be re-imposed. That will led to an economic and political collapse of the ruling theocracy.

Consequently, if president Trump orders to renegotiate the JCPOA, or impose new effective sanctions such as designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, Iran is not able to play its enrichment card.

These were the reasons sanctions forced the Iranian regime to come back to the negotiation table, and it will do it again.

 
Freelance journalist Hamid Bahrami has served as political prisoner in Iran. He is a human rights and political activist living in Glasgow, Scotland. His works covers Iran’s destructive actions in the Middle East and social crackdown in Iran. He tweets at @HaBahrami & blogs at analyzecom.

How Trump should handle Iran

US President Donald Trump

Forget the nuclear deal. Trump's real priority should be regaining leverage over Tehran.

By ERIC EDELMAN and CHARLES WALD

POLITICO, 25 July 2017 - Last week, the Trump administration recertified that Iran is complying the nuclear agreement, setting off predictable debate between who those want to exit the deal immediately and those who see it as his predecessor’s signature foreign policy achievement.

But for all the will-he-or-won’t-he attention on Trump’s decision, the focus on the nuclear deal is missing the point: The administration’s real agenda on Iran doesn’t hinge on the nuclear agreement—a dangerous deal that puts the U.S. in a impossible situation. Instead, the Trump administration’s priority should be restoring leverage against Tehran, so that we can dissuade Iran from sprinting toward a bomb and create far more favorable circumstances to negotiate an agreement that—unlike Obama’s deal—actually prevents a nuclear Iran.

Abiding by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the agreement is known, will only enable a nuclear and hegemonic Iran. It provides Tehran significant financial, military and geopolitical benefits, both upfront and over time, in exchange for minimal, reversible and temporary concessions on its nuclear program. As the JCPOA’s restrictions fall away in coming years, Iran will be legally permitted to produce everything it needs for a nuclear weapon.

Yet, the JCPOA also forfeits what little leverage the United States had – in the form of economic sanctions – with no way to rapidly rebuild pressure. Thus, leaving the deal would free Iran to sprint for a nuclear weapons capability in a year or less, likely far less time than the United States would need to rebuild the international sanctions regime. Our partners to the deal would be unlikely to go along with us, further undermining our leverage.

This catch-22 stems from earlier failures to develop compelling pressure on Iran, as reported by JINSA’s Gemunder Center Iran Task Force, which we co-chair. The Obama Administration created a false narrative that eschewed military options against Iran’s nuclear program and regional aggression, leaving Congress to focus narrowly on sanctions. These sanctions may have brought Tehran to the table, and helped keep it there long enough hammer out a deal, but alone they could not force it into an acceptable agreement.

Consequently, the JCPOA puts Iran on track to become as intractable a challenge as North Korea is today, and very possibly worse. Threatening the United States and its allies, including with nuclear weapons, is a core ambition of both these rogue regimes. Yet while Pyongyang’s relentless pursuit of this goal has only isolated and impoverished it, the JCPOA does the opposite for Tehran.

The Trump administration must not abide this untenable and deteriorating situation. The United States now needs what it clearly lacked before: a comprehensive strategy of robust leverage against all of Iran’s destabilizing behaviors.

The first step is full enforcement of the JCPOA – including potentially re-imposing suspended sanctions in response to Iranian cheating – as a clear signal that Tehran can no longer flout its nuclear obligations. However, given the damage already done by the deal and the fact time is not on its side, the administration’s ongoing strategic review and threats of renewed sanctions are insufficient.

American policymakers must also rebuild military leverage over Iran. Contingency plans to neutralize Iran’s nuclear facilities, if it materially breaches or withdraws from the deal, should be updated to reflect its growing nuclear infrastructure and military capabilities under the JCPOA. Just like it already appears to be doing against North Korea, the Pentagon must also develop credible capabilities in preparation for a possible shoot-down of future Iranian ballistic missile tests. U.S. Navy ships must also “fully and responsibly” utilize rules of engagement to defend themselves and the Persian Gulf against rising Iranian harassment.

It is equally important the United States work with its allies. The recent ten-year Memorandum of Understanding on defense assistance to Israel should be treated as the floor for cooperation, in particular on missile defenses shielding U.S. forces, Israel and its neighbors from increasingly capable arsenals of Iran and its proxies.

Stronger regional collective defense is also needed. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are shouldering the burdens of countering Iran’s growing footprint around the Arabian Peninsula. Formal U.S. military backing, and possible support from Israel, will raise the costs to Tehran of further aggression while reassuring our worried allies.

Public announcements and military exercises will make these intentions, capabilities and allied unity abundantly clear to Tehran. Strategic communications can also amplify investors’ continued wariness of the Iranian market and, in combination with human rights, terrorism and missile sanctions, increase internal strains on the regime.

These concentric pressures – none of which violate the JCPOA – will help deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons capability whether it complies, violates or withdraws from the deal.

They also create the most favorable conditions for a renegotiated agreement – one enshrining many of the parameters initially demanded by the Obama Administration. This should include: “anytime, anywhere” inspections to verify the absence of weaponization activities and secret facilities; dismantling Iran’s nuclear-capable missiles; ensuring Iran could never enrich enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon; and no sunset or end to sanctions or embargoes until inspectors verify the completely peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

Neither staying in nor exiting the JCPOA can accomplish America’s overriding priority in the Middle East. Only increased U.S. leverage can prevent a nuclear Iran.

Ambassador Eric Edelman is former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy.

General (ret.) Charles Wald is former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command. They co-chair JINSA’s Gemunder Center Iran Task Force.

A democratic alternative to the Iranian regime – 'Free Iran' rally highlights MEK's role in Iranian resistance

During the 'Free Iran' rally in Paris on July 1, the mood was festive and clearing upbeat, as speakers discussed the movement of MEK members from Iraq to Albania.

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• 5

During the 'Free Iran' rally in Paris on July 1, the mood was festive and clearing upbeat, as speakers discussed the movement of MEK members from Iraq to Albania.

But many of the speakers and delegations also spoke of the real possibility of regime change in Iran, as they noted major changes on the international scene. Speaker after speaker from the United States pointed to the new policies of the Trump administration, while others acknowledged the Obama administration for its efforts to remove the MEK from the terrorist list.

In Focus

Still, the highlight of the event was the keynote address by Maryam Rajavi, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) President-elect. She noted that there was an alternative to the current regime and its extremism.

"Since last July, the Iranian Resistance has hoisted the banner of seeking justice for the victims of the massacre of political prisoners 29 years ago, turning it into the main focus of political discourse in Iran today," said Rajavi.

She noted that in the recent Iranian elections, which many speakers called a "sham", that the slogan of the resistance was "No to the executioner, no to the charlatan". It was a slogan that was widely embraced by the Iranian people, and referenced the attempt by Khamenei to elect Raisi, a member of the death commission in the 1988 massacre.

Rajavi said there is alternative to the Iranian regime and it is the Iranian resistance.

"It is relying on political prisoners, who reaffirmed their support recently for this gathering from the depth of their cells and dungeons. It is relying on women, workers, teachers, professionals, and selfless youths. It is relying on their unsparing love and generous support, those who barrow money and sell their houses and properties to help keep this Resistance independent, strong, and solidified," said Rajavi.

She noted that the Resistance has continued to fight for freedom and stood by what it has said and promised.

"The Iranian nation is proud to have created a democratic alternative through resistance and great suffering and sacrifice. This decisive asset,…did not exist at the time of the Shah," said Rajavi. She acknowledged that this left a vacuum that allowed the regime to grow and take root.

As part of her discussion of the Resistance, she acknowledged the contributions of Massoud Rajavi, who has been a leader in the Resistance, but also active in encouraging those in Camp Liberty to keep fighting and maintain the struggle for freedom.