Iran regime change is in the making

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stressed in a recent congressional hearing that the U.S. should "work towards support of those elements inside Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government," signaling the overhaul needed in Washington's Iran policy.

From Tehran's point of view, this was a completely unpleasant surprise, as the Trump administration unexpectedly placed its weight behind those seeking true and democratic change.

Considering escalating public dissent and growing rifts in Iran's senior hierarchy, the international community should brace for a major impact in developments centered on Iran.

Before and after the May 19 presidential "election," Iran's powder-keg society witnessed a major outbreak of protests, especially by investors placing their savings in institutions linked to the state and/or the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

The vast network associated with the Iranian opposition People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) has for a year now focused its widespread effort inside the country on raising awareness, especially among the younger generation, about the true nature of this regime's 38-year report card.

One troubling dossier was the summer 1988 massacre of over 30,000 political prisoners in dozens of prisons throughout Iran.  Perpetrators of that horrendous purging enjoy high rank in today's regime.  Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi is ironically the minister of justice in President Hassan Rouhani's cabinet.

Conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, known to be the favored candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the May race, is being groomed to succeed the ill Khamenei in the regime's ultimate leadership post.  Both Pour-Mohammadi and Raisi were leading members of the four-man "Death Commission" presiding over the mass executions.

Activities and revelations made by the PMOI/MEK network inside Iran exposed those involved in the 1988 massacre.  This turn of events placed Khamenei before a major decision of enforcing his candidate as president and risking a major uprising even more powerful than that of 2009 – that, or succumb to another term of Rouhani as his regime's president.

Rest assured that despite promising to realize freedoms, Rouhani in his second term bears neither the intention nor the will to realize anything even remotely similar to reforms.

Parallel to these developments are unprecedented divides among senior officials in Tehran.  On a number of occasions, Khamenei and his faction have indirectly issued threats against Rouhani, even comparing his fate to that of the Iranian regime's first president back in the 1980s, who was impeached.

When IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani lashed out at those targeting the Guards, his outburst was considered by many to be aimed at Rouhani.

"In the Islamic Republic, we're all responsible towards martyrs, society, religion and our country. The biggest betrayal is to cast doubt toward the foundations of this system[.] ... [N]one today must weaken the corps," he said recently.

This is most probably a reference to Rouhani's recent remarks against the IRGC through the elections process and after presidential campaign.

This dangerous dispute will also leave Khamenei incapable of grooming any successor to his throne or managing a smooth transitional process, set to become deadly for the mullahs' already unclear future.

Couple all these dilemmas on Khamenei's table with the growing turmoil in the Middle East as ISIS's days are numbered.  Attention among the international community is focusing on post-ISIS circumstances, and the Trump administration is receiving further calls to weigh blacklisting the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, as well as ultimately seeking regime change through supporting the Iranian opposition.

"Iran must be free, said Newt Gingrich," former speaker of the House of Representatives, at a recent Iranian opposition rally near Paris.  "The dictatorship must be destroyed. Containment is appeasement, and appeasement is surrender. The only practical goal is to support a movement to free Iran. Any other goal will leave a dictatorship finding ways to get around any agreement and to lie about everything."  Gingrich is known for his very close relations with President Trump.

Such an initiative also enjoys vast regional support, voiced also recently by a prominent Saudi figure.

"The Iranian people are the first victims of [the mullahs'] dictatorship," said former Saudi intelligence chief Turki Faisal.  "Your effort in challenging this regime is legitimate and your resistance for the liberation of the Iranian people of all ethnicities, including Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, Turks and Fars of the mullahs' evil, as [Iranian opposition leader Maryam] Rajavi said, is a legitimate struggle."

Even a brief glance at ongoing developments emerging domestically and abroad for Iran provides convincing evidence that regime change is absolutely in the making in Tehran.

Time to double down on Iranian resistance against Khamenei

NCRI leader Maryam Rajavi told the crowd showed up to hear her speak on Saturday “(Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei’s representatives were saying the resistance has resurfaced in the country

4 July 2017 -- I had the opportunity to sit down with the National Council for Resistance in Iran ( NCRI ) this week during its annual conference in Paris, which attracts many participants every year. Diplomats and dignitaries from all over the world attended, including US politicians such as Sen. Joe Lieberman and American military notables such as retired Gen. Jack Keane, who are major supporters of regime-change in Tehran.
It was my first time directly interacting with senior NCRI leaders, despite the many years I have spent following and writing about their activities. The council is by far the largest network of anti-regime activists, and is widely feared by Tehran.
There have been numerous documented instances in which Tehran has insisted that any Western diplomatic effort to normalize relations with it would necessitate declaring the NCRI a terrorist entity.

The fact that the NCRI has consistently publicized detailed intelligence on Iran’s nefarious weapons-smuggling and inside information on its covert nuclear weaponization program has made the council the most potent and active threat to the regime’s ambitions.
NCRI leader Maryam Rajavi told the crowd showed up to hear her speak on Saturday: “(Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei’s representatives were saying the resistance has resurfaced in the country.

Intelligence and security officials repeatedly boast of the arrest of resistance members… The conclusion is what the Iranian resistance has emphasized since the outset and what many in the world have reached today: The only solution is regime-change.”
The conclusion is simple: If Tehran remains committed to destabilizing the region by funding, arming and indoctrinating terror groups, the only real inoculation to its radical designs is regime-change.

What made the gathering of Iranian resistance so unique was its ethnic and ideological diversity. Persians and Arabs, Sunnis and Shiites, secular and religious people were all present, united on behalf of a common goal.

If Tehran remains committed to destabilizing the region by funding, arming and indoctrinating terror groups, the only real inoculation to its radical designs is regime-change.

Oubai Shahbandar

Shahin Gobadi, a member of the NCRI foreign affairs committee, told me: “The issue is not Arabs versus Persians or Sunnis against Shiites; this is what the mullahs in Tehran want to depict. The Iranian resistance meeting showed that there’s a growing understanding that the regime and its proxies are on one side, and the Iranian people and the nations of the region are on the other.”

Much like the Syrian regime, Khamenei tries to normalize his regime to the international community by attempting to convince it that there is no credible alternative, so his regime and its radical Islamist ideology must be accepted by all.

No international effort to date has had any meaningful impact in moderating Tehran’s external aggressions and horrific domestic repression. If anything, the more Iran has sought recognition by the EU and US as a legitimate power, the further its terror proxies have spread throughout the Middle East.

Neither “elections,” nor the millions of dollars that have resulted from the nuclear deal, have had any tangible moderating influence on Tehran. Dialogue with it has come to its inevitable conclusion: A stubborn impasse.

So perhaps now is the time to invest real resources, time and diplomatic capital to helping the Iranian resistance grow and push back against Khamenei’s maximalist designs.
What better way to respond to Tehran’s malign meddling than with a dose of its own medicine?

• Oubai Shahbandar is a former Department of Defense senior adviser, and currently a strategic communications consultant specializing in Middle Eastern and Gulf affairs.