Iran regime change is in the making

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stressed in a recent congressional hearing that the U.S. should "work towards support of those elements inside Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government," signaling the overhaul needed in Washington's Iran policy.

From Tehran's point of view, this was a completely unpleasant surprise, as the Trump administration unexpectedly placed its weight behind those seeking true and democratic change.

Considering escalating public dissent and growing rifts in Iran's senior hierarchy, the international community should brace for a major impact in developments centered on Iran.

Before and after the May 19 presidential "election," Iran's powder-keg society witnessed a major outbreak of protests, especially by investors placing their savings in institutions linked to the state and/or the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

The vast network associated with the Iranian opposition People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) has for a year now focused its widespread effort inside the country on raising awareness, especially among the younger generation, about the true nature of this regime's 38-year report card.

One troubling dossier was the summer 1988 massacre of over 30,000 political prisoners in dozens of prisons throughout Iran.  Perpetrators of that horrendous purging enjoy high rank in today's regime.  Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi is ironically the minister of justice in President Hassan Rouhani's cabinet.

Conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, known to be the favored candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the May race, is being groomed to succeed the ill Khamenei in the regime's ultimate leadership post.  Both Pour-Mohammadi and Raisi were leading members of the four-man "Death Commission" presiding over the mass executions.

Activities and revelations made by the PMOI/MEK network inside Iran exposed those involved in the 1988 massacre.  This turn of events placed Khamenei before a major decision of enforcing his candidate as president and risking a major uprising even more powerful than that of 2009 – that, or succumb to another term of Rouhani as his regime's president.

Rest assured that despite promising to realize freedoms, Rouhani in his second term bears neither the intention nor the will to realize anything even remotely similar to reforms.

Parallel to these developments are unprecedented divides among senior officials in Tehran.  On a number of occasions, Khamenei and his faction have indirectly issued threats against Rouhani, even comparing his fate to that of the Iranian regime's first president back in the 1980s, who was impeached.

When IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani lashed out at those targeting the Guards, his outburst was considered by many to be aimed at Rouhani.

"In the Islamic Republic, we're all responsible towards martyrs, society, religion and our country. The biggest betrayal is to cast doubt toward the foundations of this system[.] ... [N]one today must weaken the corps," he said recently.

This is most probably a reference to Rouhani's recent remarks against the IRGC through the elections process and after presidential campaign.

This dangerous dispute will also leave Khamenei incapable of grooming any successor to his throne or managing a smooth transitional process, set to become deadly for the mullahs' already unclear future.

Couple all these dilemmas on Khamenei's table with the growing turmoil in the Middle East as ISIS's days are numbered.  Attention among the international community is focusing on post-ISIS circumstances, and the Trump administration is receiving further calls to weigh blacklisting the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, as well as ultimately seeking regime change through supporting the Iranian opposition.

"Iran must be free, said Newt Gingrich," former speaker of the House of Representatives, at a recent Iranian opposition rally near Paris.  "The dictatorship must be destroyed. Containment is appeasement, and appeasement is surrender. The only practical goal is to support a movement to free Iran. Any other goal will leave a dictatorship finding ways to get around any agreement and to lie about everything."  Gingrich is known for his very close relations with President Trump.

Such an initiative also enjoys vast regional support, voiced also recently by a prominent Saudi figure.

"The Iranian people are the first victims of [the mullahs'] dictatorship," said former Saudi intelligence chief Turki Faisal.  "Your effort in challenging this regime is legitimate and your resistance for the liberation of the Iranian people of all ethnicities, including Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, Turks and Fars of the mullahs' evil, as [Iranian opposition leader Maryam] Rajavi said, is a legitimate struggle."

Even a brief glance at ongoing developments emerging domestically and abroad for Iran provides convincing evidence that regime change is absolutely in the making in Tehran.

US reps. slam Iran nuclear deal at Tehran regime opponents' summit

Newt Gingrich

REUTERS, July 2, 2017 - Iranian government opponents gathered outside of Paris on Saturday (July 1) for the annual “Grand Gathering of Iranians”, organized by the National Council of Resistance of Iran ( NCRI ), to condemn the country’s regime and interference in the Middle East.
Among those present were several international delegations and representatives, such as former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Newt Gingrich and John Bolton from the United States. 
Iran reached a deal with the United States – under former President Barack Obama – and other major nations in 2015 to restricts Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
However, Iran is still subject to an arms embargo and other restrictions, which are not technically part of the nuclear agreement. 
US President Donald Trump has criticized the deal calling it a “disaster” and the “worst deal ever negotiated and in April ordered that it be reviewed, which could take months.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Newt Gingrich and John Bolton were among those present.  

Tehran equates diplomacy with weakness and inaction

Iran - Revolutionary Guards in the Strait of Hormuz

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The Baghdad Post, June 20 2017 - The latest reports regarding Iran’s provocation in the Strait of Hormuz highlight the notion that Tehran is forcefully attempting to further strengthen its hold over this strategic choke point at the expense of regional stability, Dr. Majid Rafizadeh wrote in a commentary published by The National.

It should come as no surprise that Iran’s military has once again conducted significant moves in the Strait. Roughly a third of all global oil shipments sail through it and Iran’s actions are regarded by the US Navy as 'unsafe and unprofessional'.

In March, Iranian vessels came dangerously close to British and American ships. The ships had to change course to prevent a collision. In the same week, an Iranian frigate made dangerous moves in the Gulf of Oman. In addition, in the same month, Iran launched a missile test from the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state outlets boasted about Tehran’s power and reported that a senior military adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the US against taking any retaliatory action.

Tehran’s provocations did not come from the usual aggressor, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Instead, they were conducted by the navy. This highlights the notion that the Iran is transforming its navy to act alongside the IRGC and the elite Quds force.

More importantly, Iran’s actions disregard the fact that the Strait of Hormuz does not solely belong to Iran. It is estimated that more than 16 million barrels of oil go through it every day from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Iraq and Iran.

Iran’s military adventurism has intensified in the last few months. From the Iranian leaders’ perspective, this is the most productive tactical and strategic approach to project Iran’s power to Arab and western nations.

Tehran benefits from instability and chaos. For example, it was through instability in Lebanon that Iran gave birth to Hizbollah. It is in the midst of conflict in Iraq that Iran formed powerful militia groups. It is through the war in Syria that Iran arms and empowers additional proxies. It is through the crisis in Yemen that Tehran strengthens its ties with the Houthis. The list goes on. When there is instability, Iran expands its powerful operations and increases its influence.

It is critical for the international community to counter Iran’s ambitions and provocations, but how can this be done?

First of all, when it comes to Iran, the nearly four decades since the establishment of the Islamic Republic have proved that diplomacy alone is not adequate. As Henry Kissinger once remarked: 'The exercise of diplomacy without the threat of force is without effect.'

Iran should be cognisant of the notion that its provocations and military adventurism in the Gulf will bring grave consequences.

Ronald Reagan followed this rule successfully in April 1988, when he ordered the US Navy to put an end to Iranian naval harassment in the Gulf. American forces sent a strong message to Iran through Operation Praying Mantis. After the operation, Iran’s assaults in the Gulf ceased.

From the viewpoint of the Iranian leaders, if other countries do not respond to the IRGC actions, it is a symbol of their weakness. For Iran, concession, leniency and diplomacy all mean powerlessness.

A regional Arab coalition – with the support of the US and other western allies – would be the most significant element of the equation: a robust bulwark against Tehran. This will require taking steps beyond words.

It requires a three-pronged strategy: strengthening the coalition’s navy, missile and defence capabilities. It also necessitates an accompanying comprehensive plan to counter Iran’s interventionism in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The international community also needs to address the loopholes of the nuclear deal. One of the major reasons that Iran is significantly emboldened is that Iranian leaders are aware that the nuclear agreement will continue to empower them financially and it will also allow Iran to achieve its nuclear objectives.

If Iran acquired nuclear weapons, countering Iran’s aggressive regional ambitions would be next to impossible.

European nations should pressure Tehran. Iran’s destabilising actions in the Strait of Hormuz affect the single market’s economy because Tehran has the capability to disrupt oil flow through the Strait.

Iran is likely to further flex its muscles in Hassan Rouhani 's second term, seeking a far more aggressive world view.

Iranian leaders ought to be aware that Tehran’s destabilising actions in the Strait of Hormuz are red lines that could trigger serious consequences if crossed. Otherwise, Tehran’s aggressions and provocations will continue to gather strength.

This can be prevented by the aforementioned comprehensive plan, which is anchored in three-dimensional strategic and military cooperation between the West and Gulf states.